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Five Bold Box Office Predictions For the Rest of 2019

Bold Box Office Predictions

Not only is Endgame on the horizon, but so is the rest of the blockbuster season. The late spring/summer movie season is when studios have their largest money-makers…or their worst bombs. Either way, it’s a fun time for the box office.

Here’s five BOLD box office predictions for the rest of the year:

#5: Detective Pikachu makes a billion dollars

The worldwide phenomenon that is Pokémon is hitting theaters in live-action form next month. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is a film that’s gaining some incredible steam in the weeks leading up to its release. Ryan Reynolds voicing the staple character of the franchise seemed to be an unorthodox choice, but trailers and overall interest has proven doubters wrong. I’m calling it right here in this article, Detective Pikachu will surpass a billion dollars.

Image result for detective pikachu

Image Via Nintendo Wire

How can this be achieved?

Early tracking numbers look great for this film. The movie is set to hit theatres May 10th. Tracking numbers for the opening weekend sit around $100 million dollars. That number is astounding, right? Well, Pokémon content has been immensely popular for decades and mixing that with the box office draw that Ryan Reynolds has had recently is a recipe for success. The film needs to do well in Asian markets for this prediction to be achieved, so that’s what we’ll look for when it comes out in May.

What are the challenges?

For a film to reach a billion dollars, it needs legs. While projections are confident for the opening weekend for this film, it will be interesting to see how it does as it progresses from week-to-week. If the film doesn’t manage to catch on in Asian markets like we expect it to then the film will likely not reach a billion at the global box office. The film’s release is also directly right in the middle of a pretty packed early summer box office season. Endgame will still be bumping around and releases like John Wick 3 and Aladdin will be right around the corner.

#4: Hobbs and Shaw succeeds at the box office, furthering the divide in the Fast and Furious franchise

Image result for hobbs and shaw

Image Via MovieWeb

The Fast and Furious franchise was once fringe action fun. It is now considered to be one of the greatest and most profitable franchises out there. The franchise has had back-to-back billion dollar releases in Furious 7 and Fate of the Furious. Lately, however, there have been obvious feuds among some within the franchise . Namely, between Dwayne Johnson and Vin Diesel, arguably the two faces of it all. Tyrese Gibson and Michelle Rodriguez have always been involved in beef with Vin and The Rock as well. Johnson has already stated that he won’t be in Fast 9. The plan is for Hobbs and Shaw to split completely and expand the universe. Many speculate that the decision to bump the release of Fast 9 from 2019 to 2020 is due to the fact that Hobbs and Shaw will hit theaters this summer.

How can this be achieved?

Through massive box office returns, Hobbs and Shaw could divide the franchise. If the film proves to be successful, then it will be apparent that Dwayne Johnson’s box office draw is too strong for the franchise to handle. If the film is successful, then the next step would be to see how much of a decline Fast 9 has at the box office, if any. The alternative would be this film bombing, which may result in Statham and Johnson jumping back into the main franchise. Hobbs and Shaw will be a risk for sure, and we’ll have to see if it will pay off.

What are the challenges?

Splitting away from a franchise for a spin-off is always difficult. Hobbs and Shaw will definitely be fighting an uphill battle when it drops in August. If the film isn’t able to really string a cord with fans and make big money, then this spin-off idea may be dead, fast.

#3: Jumanji 3 outperforms Star Wars: Episode 9

Image result for jumanji

Image Via Rolling Stone

Okay, you can call me crazy for this one. Of course, The Rise of Skywalker has had an incredible jolt of anticipation as a result of the release of the first trailer, but can the film really win back all those that flocked to see The Force Awakens?

Let’s put things into perspective. The franchise has seen declining returns at the box office as of late, not only in North America but on a global scale. The Force Awakens grossed $2.080 billion globally, Rogue One grossed $1.056 billion, The Last Jedi then grossed $1.332 billion and finally, Solo only managed $392 million. The films largest declines have come from China. The demand for Star Wars in China has drastically decreased. Each films gross since The Force Awakens has dropped by at least a third. If that continues then The Rise of Skywalker will be on pace to make less than $10 million in China. So, what exactly is my prediction? Well this completely outrageous, rather out of the box prediction is that Jumanji 3 will out-gross Star Wars Episode 9 at the box office.

How can this be achieved?

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was a stunning hit with families. It blew up at the box office and grossed $962 million dollars, competing almost directly with The Last Jedi, which was released five days earlier. This year, Jumanji 3 is set for release one week before The Rise of Skywalker. What Jumanji 3 would need to do to be able to out-gross Star Wars is simply build upon its overseas numbers. Welcome to the Jungle was able to gross $557 million in foreign markets, and it’s quite common for a franchise to do better overseas with sequels, typically building upon the success of the previous film. If Jumanji 3 can see significant growth overseas, and be a hit with families here in North America just as the last one was, then there is a chance that this movie upsets The Rise of Skywalker.

What are the challenges?

It is Star Wars vs. Jumanji. I think that basically sums it up. While the last film was a sleeper hit at the box office, this film might not be as fortunate.

#2: Endgame will open up to $300 million domestically

It was almost a year ago that Avengers: Infinity War opened up to ridiculous numbers at the box office and took the World by storm. The film broke all opening weekend records. It managed to open to a record-breaking $257 million domestically in its opening weekend, and an astounding $640.5 million worldwide in its opening weekend. So… with numbers like that, how could Endgame possibly top it? Well… I happen to believe that Endgame will most certainly top it.

endgame

image via CNN

How can this be achieved?

In recent years, the MCU has had films blow past projections in their opening weekends. Black Panther was initially projected to gross anywhere from $150 to $165 million domestically, it ended up opening up to $202.2 million. Infinity War also surpassed projections by $25-40 million. Same can be said for Captain Marvel which opened up to $153 million, $25 million dollars more than most estimates. Presently, opening weekend estimates for Endgame sit around $225-250 million dollars, with liberal estimates even projecting up to $280 million. Based off past projections, those estimates will be surpassed, but will it be enough to get the film to an unprecedented $300 million in its first weekend? Tickets for Endgame went on sale three weeks ago and all across North America movie theatre websites were crashing due to the insane number of people rushing to get tickets. In the first week of sales alone, Endgame has out-grossed the pre-sales for Infinity War by more than double. This is the event film of 2019 and $300 million first weekend is definitely in site.

What are the challenges?

The insane number of $300 million domestically in a single opening weekend is absurd. Despite how popular Infinity War was it still managed to gross (still a record-breaking) $257 million domestically in its opening weekend. Are there enough seats to get a film an opening weekend gross of $300 million dollars? Theaters may need to add extra showtimes to help achieve this milestone, I wouldn’t put it past them. If Endgame is unable to attract more viewers to IMAX, or 3D showings then the number may be unattainable. Due to the films incredible hype, seeing it in IMAX may not be a stretch for casual moviegoers. Needless to say, it will be exciting to see the box office returns come in that weekend.

#1: Endgame tops the all-time worldwide box office record set by Avatar

The all-time unadjusted worldwide box office record for highest grossing film ever was set by Avatar back in 2009. James Cameron’s Avatar took the entire World by storm, and the film was original work, not a sequel, prequel, or remake of any kind.

How did this film manage to make over $2.7 billion dollars worldwide? Avatar was about more than just the movie, it was about a new kind of technology that would soon be a staple of cinema. The CGI used in Avatar was groundbreaking. The filmmakers were able to develop an entire computer-generated World that looked surreal, gorgeous, and unlike anything seen before… on that scale. That scale being in 3D. The film promised to revolutionize 3D, and it did exactly that. It brought live-action 3D films to the mainstream, and it forced the rest of the industry to step up.

Calling for repeat viewings, it ended up finishing its box office run with $760 million in North America (2nd all-time), and over $2 billion overseas for a total of $2.788 billion worldwide. Even despite the worldwide phenomenon’s that were Infinity War and The Force Awakens, those two films still halted with over $700 million dollars less at the box office than Avatar. So, can Endgame out-gross Avatar? The mountain may be climbed and conquered this time around.

endgame avatar

image via Comic Book

 

How can this be achieved?

Tickets for Endgame have been selling like crazy, and not just in North America. Theaters in the China, UK, South Africa, and Australia all reported site crashes as well when tickets went on sale. Infinity War managed to break records with its global opening of $640 million dollars last year. Current tracking numbers predict that Endgame might destroy that number with a worldwide opening weekend around $800 million dollars. Needless to say, the worldwide box office will explode when Endgame hits theatres. The culmination of 20+ films and ten years of content will ensure multiple viewings, easily. Another major boost to the film will be its early reception. Imagine if opening weekend crowds voice a major distaste for the film? Ratings plummet, anger ensues, the World ends! That would definitely kill any chance this film has of reaching the record. However, if we expect the film to be a hit, as most Marvel films are, then we can expect tons of cash, great legs, and repeat viewings from fans all around the globe.

What are the challenges?

Let’s say Endgame opens up to $800 million worldwide. Incredible! That still puts it $1.988 billion dollars behind Avatar. So essentially the film would need to multiply its projected opening weekend gross of $800 million by 3.5 times. That would ensure it hits the record, but can the Avengers pull that off? Infinity War opened up to $640 million worldwide and was able to gross $2.048 billion dollars. That means Infinity War multiplied its opening weekend by approximately 3.2 times. When Avatar came out it shocked the World. Following a global opening weekend of $241 million dollars, Avatar multiplied its first weekend by 11.5 times to reach $2.788 billion dollars. To break the record, Endgame needs monstrous legs and they need to capitalize on a quiet second weekend. There is undoubtedly a gigantic mountain to climb, but if any film can do it, it is definitely Endgame.


Thank you for reading! What are your thoughts on these predictions? Comment down below!

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Brennan Dubé

Brennan Dubé is a Political Science and Communications student at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada. He is a contributing freelance journalist for MovieBabble. You can follow him at both of his Twitter accounts; @BrennanForFilms and @Brennan_Dube

8 Responses

  1. 18cinemalane says:

    Interesting predictions! I like how you provided thorough explanations to support your statements! Here are my responses to your predictions:

    Detective Pikachu will come close at $800 million, but I don’t believe it will make a billion.
    Hobbs and Shaw won’t be a failure, but it won’t be a success either. I feel that this movie won’t make as much as the studio wants it to make.
    Jumanji 3 making more money than The Rise of Skywalker seems possible, but it all depends on Jumanji’s word of mouth and financial legs.
    & 1. Both seem like a possibility, but anything can happen. So far, I’ve heard very good things about Avengers: Endgame, so that word of mouth will definitely work in the movie’s favor.

    My 2019 box office prediction to add to this list will be that Jumanji 3 will make more money than Hobbs and Shaw.

  2. No. Endgame isn’t gonna beat Avatar. Too much competition and Avatar got just so many people to go see it. Avengers will not be on this level.

  3. Sam Simon says:

    Cool post! Although I’m not sure about that Jumanji vs Star Wars prediction…

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